Trump’s sudden U-turns create regional unease

Donald Trump's flip-flopshave confused both Palestinians and Iranians and stoked regional tensions during this month.

- Michael Jansen, Political Correspondent

On the one hand, Trump chose to threaten Hamas, which the US branded a terrorist organisation in 1997. He proclaimed a “last warning” to Hamas to release Israeli captives held in Gaza and/or suffer elimination, “I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say,” Trump posted on his social media platform.

To back up his bluster, Trump has restored delivery of 900-kilogramme bombs suspended during the Biden administration and pledged another $17 billion in arms for delivery to Israel, which had already received $20.5 billion worth of arms under ex-President Joe Biden.

On the other hand, his outburst was preceded by and, perhaps, predicated on the revelation by Israeli columnist Barak Ravid in Axios that the US has been holding direct talks with Hamas in Qatar, where negotiations have been mediated by Doha and Cairo. The US envoy for hostages, Adam Boehler, has been involved in lengthy meetings with Hamas which have focused on releasing captives and strengthening and extending the ceasefire.

Hamas officials have said that these talks could advance to Gaza's post-war governance and reconstruction. Hamas supports the Egyptian plan, endorsed by the Arab and Islamic summits, for rebuilding devastated Gaza over five years under a non-partisan committee of Palestinian technocrats. This would require Hamas to end its administration of the strip and for its militia to abide by the ceasefire.

Neither Hamas nor the Trump administration regard direct talks as unprecedented. Instead, there is recognition that they are essential when trying to defuse conflicts. Hamas and other Palestinian factions, however, regard direct talks with Israel as a red line which they cannot cross.