THE POPULATION PARADOX

Longer lives, fewer kids — what the long-term demographic change could mean for future generations

- SREYA DEB

JUST FIGURE THIS out. The global population, currently at 8.2 billion, is expected to peak at 10.3 billion in 2084 and then decline to 10.2 billion through the end of the century. Closer home, India’s population will continue to grow briefly from its current 1.5 billion to 1.7 billion, and then drop back to 1.5 billion by 2100—leaving the population unchanged after a 75-year period. India’s neighbour China, another country with one of the highest populations in the world, is expected to see a sharp drop from 1.4 billion people in 2025 to 633 million by 2100.

Globally, fertility rates are declining. In the 1960s, the average world fertility rate was neatly 5 births per woman. In 2024, the figure was 2.2, as per the United Nations’ World Fertility Report.

The population growth figures are also concerning. At the start of the 21st century, the Indian population was growing annually by an average of 20 million births or individuals. This number dropped to 13 million in 2024, and the number is expected to stop growing altogether by 2060, after which it will begin its certain decline, as per Data for India, a public research platform.

Several regions are experiencing population ageing as well. As per a report published by the World Bank last year, the proportion of people aged 65 years and older in Europe, Central Asia and North America is around 18%, while the same for people aged 0-14 years is 17%. As for India, in the early 1960s, 40% of the country’s population was under the age of 14 years. By 2025, this share was cut to half, as per Data for India research.

In fact, in another two decades, there will be more seniors over the age of 60 years than there will be children in India, stated a report titled India in Transition published by the Centre for Advanced Study of India.