A dividend at risk

Mismatch between education, jobs, and aspirations could narrow India's demographic window

- 

EMPLOYABILITY AND JOB shortages have long cast doubt on India's ability to realise its much-vaunted demographic dividend.

A new report by Azim Premji University adds to these concerns, flagging a growing mismatch between aspirations and economic realities. India is projected to have a working-age population of over one billion by 2030. However, according to the State of Working India 2026 report, the share of this cohort is likely to begin declining from 2030, signalling that the window to harness this advantage may be narrower than previously assumed. This shift is expected to coincide with a rise in unemployed graduates, particularly among the young. Although the demographic dividend is expected to last until 2055, it will be of limited value if younger cohorts are forced into low-skill work.