OPEC Cuts Demand Forecasts for 2025, 2026 on Trade War

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cut forecasts for global oil demand growth this year and the next as US President Donald Trump's tariff onslaught takes a toll on consumption, while remaining more bullish than other forecasters.

- GRANT SMITH

The cartel lowered demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026 by about 100,000 barrels a day, projecting an expansion of 1.3 million barrels a day—or approximately 1%—for each year, according to its latest monthly report.

Despite the downgrades, the estimates from the OPEC remain considerably higher than many others in the industry—a recurring feature of its research. The US government's Energy Information Administration slashed its 2025 growth figure by 30% last week to 900,000 barrels a day, while Goldman Sachs Group anticipates consumption rising by 500,000 barrels a day.