Trump's Tariff Tsunami...

IT MAY STILL be able to keep the export pace in some sectors like textiles and garments, where it enjoys a high degree of relative advantage with some South Asian competitors, but would lose out in other areas including marine products.

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New Delhi has long enjoyed a trade surplus with the world's largest economy, with net forex gain of $41.4 billion from bilateral goods trade in FY25, a year in which its merchandise shipments barely grew, but shipments to the US rose by nearly 12%. Services exports to the US stood at $48 billion in FY25.

While the European Union (15%), Vietnam (20%), and Indonesia (19%) now will have relative advantage in tariffs to the US, the flurry of decisions expected to be announced by Trump after the August 1 deadline will bring more clarity on where India stands in relative terms.