Welsh Labour's poll bombshell

LABOUR is on course for its worst Welsh election result in the history of devolution, according to a major new poll.

- BY RUTH MOSALSKI Reporter

It shows Labour could fall to third place at the next election, with Plaid Cymru taking the most seats in the Welsh Parliament and Reform UK in second place.

The poll comes a year ahead of the next Senedd election, which will take place on May 7, 2026.

The Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, puts Labour's predicted share at 18%, behind both Plaid Cymru (30%) and Reform UK (25%).

If the figures were replicated in an actual election - which will see 96 seats contested for the first time in the expanded Senedd - it would put Plaid Cymru on course be the largest party with approximately 35 seats, followed by Reform UK with 30.

Labour would have 19 seats. The Conservatives, currently the official opposition, would have nine and be in fourth place. The Lib Dems would take three seats.

Polling expert Dr Jac Larner, who calculated the projection, said 10 of those projected seats fall within a very narrow margin of error (less than 2%), meaning even minor shifts in voting intention could produce a very different Senedd result.

Labour is losing support not only to Reform but the other left-wing parties.