Forecast: SA is crossing a Rubicon

Local government elections, political fallout from two commissions and a possible coup plot uncovered - 2026 is the year when things get real.

- By Marianne Thamm

An unscheduled press conference by KwaZulu-Natal police commissioner Lieutenant General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi on 6 July set the stage for 2026 and even 2027, when the ANC and South Africa will face crossing a churning Rubicon. Right now, though, our Rubicon still smells more like Shit Creek.

But 2026 is the year we reach for the paddles, shove off for the rapids of what will be highly contested local government elections (on a date yet to be determined), and hope for clearer water ahead.

The day Mkhwanazi confirmed the suspected nexus between organised crime syndicates, law enforcement, drug cartels and government officials, everything changed in South Africa.

Prompted by an apparent order from Minister of Police Senzo Mchunu to shut down the political killings task team (PKTT), the lieutenant general went ballistic and in the process shot up the Most Handsome Uniformed Strongman in Africa charts (with Ibrahim Traoré still at No 1).

Nhlanhla “Lucky” Mkhwanazi named names and things, and the country has not been the same since that press conference.

Local government elections: the ANC

The ANC and President Cyril Ramaphosa are limping into local government elections after having lost the overall majority in 2024, and being forced to form a multiparty government while bleeding wards to former president Jacob Zuma’s MK party in by-elections, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal.