2026 slow …

“Mf growth slows to 3-4%, you are not generating enough GDP growth to reduce debt ratios,’ he said.

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At the same time, the trade surplus we had last years unlikely tobe there again, which creates pressure on reserves, the currency and interest rates.”Providing the macro outlook, First Capital Holdings PLC Assistant Vice President — Research Ranjan Ranatunga said that under a3-4% growth scenario, Sri Lanka's debt-to-GDP ratio would remain above International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections and gradually rise, while sustained growth above 5% would allow debt ratios to decline below IMF targets over the medium term.

He said private sector trade growth, which surged in 2025, isexpected to moderate in 2026 as interest rates ‘edge higher and pent-up demand for vehicle imports eases, Imports are forecast to rise with post-cyclone reconstruction activity, while export growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term, widening the trade deficit.