The art of a US deal

It seems unlikely that the Philippines will secure a significantly better trade deal from the United States between now and 2028.

- MARVIN TORT

With the 19% tariff on Philippine exports set to begin on Aug. 1, this appears poised to remain unchanged throughout the Marcos II Administration, and possibly even through the end of the Trump II Administration.

Without further negotiation, the 19% “compromise” tariff, slightly reduced from an original proposal of 20%, could severely impact Philippine exports to the US. Thus, it is imperative for Manila to convince Washington that addressing its trade imbalance with the Philippines need not disrupt trade, jobs, and investments, and that protecting mutual strategic interests, particularly in the West Philippine Sea, is beneficial for both nations.

However, if Manila puts in deliberate and strategic effort, and with some luck, it might successfully lobby Washington for meaningful concessions. An initial, realistic goal could be reducing the tariff from 19% to 15% before Presidents Marcos or Trump leave office. Ultimately, the art of securing a better trade deal from the US hinges on what Manila can offer in return.

The US has granted tariff concessions to strategic partners such as Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea. While the Philippines received a small concession (the reduction from 20% to 19%), there remains considerable room for further negotiation. Manila should confidently pursue additional tariff reductions by offering reciprocal benefits, possibly beyond trade, including strategic security arrangements or other mutually beneficial agreements.