PHL 2026 growth forecast reduced to 5.1% — MUFG

ECONOMIC GROWTH is expected to pick up to 5.1% next year, which if realized would once again leave the government short of its targets, MUFG Global Markets Research said.

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In its Asia FX Outlook 2026, MUFG Global said it cut its 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projection from 5.5% previously, but added that prospects for weak growth could signal easing moves by the central bank.

The government's official target band for that year is 6-7%. If the MUFG Global forecast pans out, it would be the fourth straight year the target will be missed.

“We forecast the Philippines’ growth to improve slightly above 5% in 2026, as government spending picks up post the pullback from the flood control corruption cases,” MUFG Global analysts said.

In October, government spending fell for a third straight month to P430.6 billion, down 7.76% year on year.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. has said that the government will boost spending in the fourth quarter in a bid to catch up with its growth targets.