New York's billion-dollar May art auctions could actually be a success

IT'S HARD to imagine less auspicious conditions for May's New York auction season.

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The art market is limping, hobbled by high prices and low morale, which managed to sink even lower as Mr. Trump's tariff war seemed to bulldoze whatever green shoots emerged during fairs and auctions earlier this year.

"After the Trump election, we felt that a lot of the volatility and guesswork that had been plaguing the market was kind of settled business," says Lisa Dennison, the executive vice-president and chairman of the Americas at Sotheby's. "Everything was kind of going in the right direction." But 100 days later, she says, "the kind of disruption and volatility that we saw continued, and markets do not like uncertainty. So that's been a bit of a challenge." (Currently, contemporary art seems to be exempt from tariffs, although it is certainly not exempt from their broader economic repercussions.)

And yet despite the many headwinds howling in their faces, the auction houses have managed to put together what is, under the circumstances, a robust sales slate. In just the single week beginning May 12, Christie's plans to sell between $600 million and $811 million worth of art. Sotheby's anticipates selling between $485 million and $673.5 million of art in the same week. And Phillips, the perennial bridesmaid of the contemporary auction market, anticipates selling between $74.7 million to $108.9 million. (Estimates do not include auction house fees known as buyer's premiums, but totals do.)