India's quest to replace coal

India aims to be a developed country by 2047 and achieve its net zero emissions goal by 2070.

- Anvesha Adhikari, Navya, Anjali Goyal, Anandajit Goswami & Rakesh Kacker

A $30-trillion economy in 2047 on a net-zero pathway to 2070 implies rising demand for electricity, with significant increase in the share of renewable energy in the electricity generation mix and reduced coal dependence.

The current share of steam-based electricity is more than 70 per cent in the generation mix. Currently, 75 per cent of India's domestic coal and a significant share of imported coal is consumed by thermal power plants. ACPET, through its empirical-based regression framework backed by artificial intelligence and machine learning models, has generated several possible trajectories of coal required for electricity generation towards 2047.

Multiple scenarios with varying shares of manufacturing, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and increasing share of renewable energy sources (REs) comprising wind, solar, small hydro, and biomass (excluding large hydro) in the generation mix are being considered in the model. The inference is that coal's share in electricity generation may decrease only beyond 2047 but absolute consumption of thermal coal will not decline.

In 2023-24, out of the 909 million tonnes (MT) of non-coking coal dispatched, 859.34 MT went to the power sector (utilities and captive plants). According to the National Electricity Plan 2022-32, the projection for electricity demand is likely to be 1907.8 billion units (BU) for 2026-27 and 2473.7 BU for 2031-32. Thus, steady growth is projected for electricity demand in the coming decades, with corresponding rise in coal demand, though India will move towards a Net Zero pathway in the long term by 2070.