India's oil production in dire straits as fuel use continues to be strong

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Ltd, which account for most of India's crude oil output, have projected a 10-21 percent decline in domestic production by 2030—which they have told a parliamentary committee.

- S DINAKAR

This is despite years of government effort to reverse the fall in production and comes against the backdrop of India's emerging "superpower status" as a demand centre for oil and gas.

India's import dependence is worsening, with the oil ministry telling the standing committee that the share of import in the volume of crude processed will increase to 91 percent by 2028-29.

ONGC's output is expected to decline by 10 per cent from an estimated 410,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025-26 to 372,000 bpd in 2029-30, according to the second report of the Standing Committee on Petroleum & Natural Gas, presented to the Lok Sabha last week.

India's biggest producer of oil and gas is also lagging in exploration. It drilled only 74 exploratory wells essential to find new oil, compared to 124 in 2024-25 and has targeted 111 wells next fiscal, according to the report.

It has also failed to meet production targets it agreed upon with the government, with standalone production including condensate, a liquid product, at 390,000 bpd in 2023-24 as against the target of 458,000 bpd.