'Closures could be unavoidable'

Council grapples with the maths of a falling birthrate

- Tristan CORK

EDUCATION chiefs in Bristol have pledged to avoid more primary school closures and ask larger schools to reduce intake instead.

But they warn that some closures may be ‘unavoidable’ as they grapple with the twin problem of Bristol’s falling birth rate and an exodus of families with young children out of the city to find cheaper housing.

Bristol City Council is dealing with a massive surplus of school places - primary schools that are set up to welcome two, three and sometimes even four classes of new reception year children each September, only to find numbers are down and classrooms are half full or sometimes completely empty.

The Post revealed earlier this month that this September's intake of four-year-olds to the city’s state-funded primary schools was nearly 1,000 children short of capacity.

Now, we can reveal which areas are mostly likely to see cuts, on an area-by-area basis.

There will be an estimated 916 empty chairs in reception classes across the city this September, following on from around 950 last September, even despite some primary schools cutting the number of reception classes they intend to have this year.

Now, the council has published its draft School Organisation Strategy, which outlines to schools, parents and councillors where the issue is most distinct, their predictions for numbers up to the year 2030, and what the strategy is to cut the number of classes while trying to avoid closing schools.

The strategy also takes into account new housing being built in each area, with a calculation made about how many primary school aged children will move to the area because of those developments.

But despite Bristol seeing a housing development boom, the education chiefs point out that even though hundreds or even thousands of new homes are being built, in some areas almost all of them are small flats and won't produce extra children to boost numbers.