Southeast Asia amid the US-China rift

The rivalry between the United States and China has become the defining contest of the 21st century. Barely two decades ago, Washington and Beijing were partners in prosperity. America’s support for China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 epitomised the high-water mark of engagement, reflecting the belief that economic integration would lead to greater political cooperation. Today, that partnership has morphed into suspicion and confrontation. Relations between the United States and China have deteriorated so swiftly that many observers now describe them as locked in a “new Cold War”. The more pressing question, however, is not whether this analogy holds, but whether confrontation can be managed short of outright conflict.

- Thitinan Pongsudhirak

China’s economic ascent was initially encouraged, even celebrated, by the US and its allies. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Beijing was seen as a responsible stakeholder, integrating into global supply chains, attracting foreign investment, and lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty. For a time, it seemed the promise of globalisation was being realised. But confidence gave way to concern as China began to flex its newfound power more openly.

The 2008 Beijing Olympics symbolised China's national revival and confidence both at home and abroad. Four years later, Beijing’s construction of artificial islands and militarisation of the South China Sea unsettled the Southeast Asia region and signalled a bolder strategic posture. President Xi Jinping’s rise to power appears to be the decisive turning point. Within his first year, he launched the Belt and Road Initiative, a sprawling infrastructure and investment drive that revived both overland and maritime Silk Roads as platforms of influence.

The US was initially slow to react. President Barack Obama's “pivot to Asia” promised to rebalance American strategy, but implementation lagged. Even when the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled overwhelmingly in 2016 against China's maritime claims, Beijing ignored the verdict without meaningful consequence. It was Donald Trump's first presidency that marked the sharp break.

Inhis first term, Mr Trump's imposition of tariffs and restrictions on advanced technology started a trade and tech war. His moves reflected a deeper political transformation in the US, as decades of scepticism toward globalisation and free trade moved from the margins to the mainstream. “America First” nationalism, once a fringe doctrine, became the organising principle of US foreign and economic policy. By his second term, Mr Trump could declare sweeping tariffs not as a sudden departure but as the logical culmination of a longstanding geostrategic campaign.