Oil price resilience being tested

Oil markets have remained remarkably resilient so far this year, despite concerns over US President Donald Trump's trade policies and rising Opec+ production quotas. But that strength will now be tested, as Saudi output is starting to surge just as demand appears to be slowing.

- RON BOUSSO

Benchmark oil prices are currently near US$70 (2,270 baht) a barrel, down from a 2025 high of $82 in mid-January, but above the four-year low of $62 set in May. That followed Mr Trump's “Liberation Day” tariff flip-flop, which sparked confusion about the policy direction and fears of a severe disruption to global economic activity and oil consumption. Investor jitters were compounded by a significant Opec+ policy shift. Under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, the group, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, started to aggressively ramp up production quotas in April for the first time in over three years. The group is set to add 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of production between April and September. Given this backdrop, why has crude remained so resilient? It's likely in large part because most of these fears have yet to materialise.