K-Research predicts rise in recession risk this year

Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) anticipates an increased risk of a technical recession in the Thai economy during the second half of this year, though it maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 1.4%.

- SOMRUEDI BANCHONGDUANG

Uncertainty regarding US import tariffs is expected to remain high even after the 90-day pause ends on July 9.

"As a result, the Thai economy is expected to face rising risks of entering a technical recession in the latter half of the year," said Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, deputy managing director at K-Research.

"However, if the US maintains a 10% import tariff for all countries for the remainder of the year, Thai exports are expected to grow by 0.5%, which would lift GDP growth to 1.8%."

According to Ms Nattaporn, in the second half of the year the Thai economy appears increasingly vulnerable, with growth likely to slow from the first half.