How world's conflict zones have reshaped airline routes

When Israel launched surprise missile attacks on Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes, Persian Gulf countries closed their skies, forcing more than two dozen of the world's major airlines to divert or cancel flights.

- ANUPREETA DAS NIRAJ CHOKSHI

When India and Pakistan engaged in a brief but intense conflict in May, Pakistan and India each banned the use of their skies by the other's airlines.

After Russia began its war on Ukraine in 2022 and closed its airspace to Western airlines, many American and European airlines were forced to redraw flight paths — a disruption that remains today.

In recent years, airlines worldwide have increasingly had to deal with geopolitics, as extended wars and sudden conflicts require them to abruptly remap major routes and recalculate profitability.

The risk was clear in 2014, when a Malaysia Airlines jet was shot down over a part of Ukraine controlled by pro-Russia separatists, killing all 298 people on board. In December, dozens died when an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed while over Russian airspace, likely after being hit by its air defence systems.

More than 4.5% of the world’s land mass is affected by conflict, a rise of 65% since 2021, according to a report last year by Verisk Maplecroft, a risk consultancy.

Conflict is among the biggest causes of disruption for the civil aviation sector, which operates more than 100,000 commercial flights carrying 10 million people a day. Airlines must already balance passenger demand, weather, fuel costs, government regulations, and pilot and crew schedules for each flight.