China gets worst 2025 growth forecast yet with UBS downgrade

UBS AG added toa series of growth downgrades for China with the most pessimistic forecast among major banks, predicting the economy will expand just 3.4% this year as US tariffs choke exports.

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The Swiss bank, which previously saw growth in 2025 at 4%, maintained its estimate for next year at 3%. Both forecasts are the lowest of all projections for the economy compiled by Bloomberg.

“The tariff shock poses unprecedented chal-lenges to China’s exports and will set forth major adjustment in the domestic economy as well,” UBS economists, including Tao Wang, wrote in anote yesterday.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Citigroup Inc are among global banks that cut their outlook for China in recent days, with most economists doubting Beijing can achieve the official target of around 5% growth this year.