Can Russia ‘rise’ again in Asean?

The most frequent question raised by senior Asean officials in recent weeks has been about the possible outcome of the current Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

- Kavi Chongkittavorn

There are two expected outcomes.

If these are positive, Russia would have more space to further strengthen its slow-moving ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).

However, if the war, now entering its fourth year, continues, bilateral relations are likely to remain insipid and uneventful.

Senior Asean officials are considering Russia’s request to hold a second special summit in Moscow to commemorate the 30th anniversary of its dialogue partnership with Asean. It is not a routine Asean-Russia summit.

The request was made at the end of last year. Coming during the ongoing Russia-Ulzaine war, the proposal signals Moscow’s effort to rejuvenate its overall ties with Asean. Most importantly, Russia wants to demonstrate that its relations with the region are solid.

Before the fall of the Berlin Wall, the former Soviet Union was a superpower to be reckoned with in Southeast Asia, as Moscow had a strong presence and considerable influence in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. Although full dialogue partnership status was established in 1996, current bilateral relations lack the dynamism seen in Asean’s ties with other dialogue partners.

While Asean policymakers have agreed in principle to hold the second dialogue commemorative summit with Russia, they have yet to reach a consensus on when and where it should be held. The issue is sensitive due to divergent views among the 11 Asean members.

These differences are closely linked to members’ positions on the Russia-Ukraine war. In general, Asean has remained neutral, carefully calibrating its stance whenever the issue has arisen in UN-related forums.

Looking closer, Asean can be divided into three broad positions: those that condemned Russia, those that supported it, and those taking an intermediate stance.

Singapore condemned and sanctioned Russia, while Myanmar supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine.