BoT sees drop in GDP growth due to tariffs

The Bank of Thailand expects GDP growth to dip to less than 2.5% this year, primarily attributed to the impact of US reciprocal tariffs on Thai imports.

- SOMRUEDI BANCHONGDUANG

The central bank initially forecast the 3.8% US tariff on Thai imports would primarily affect export-ers who ship directly to the US, resulting in sector-specific export shocks.

Sakkapop Panyanukul, assistant governor of the central bank's mon-etary policy group, said the impact is expected to be both significant and prolonged.

"Before the US announced the 38% reciprocal tariff on Thai imports, we projected GDP growth of more than 2.5% for this year," he said.

"However, due to the tariff's impact, growth is now expected to be lower than 2.5%."

The central bank forecasts export growth of 2-3% this year, as the tariff's effects are likely to be felt more strongly next year. In the worst-case scenario, the bank thinks exports could contract next year.