Analyst warns of 'tariff shock' if talks fail

Thai GDP growth could dip below 1%

- NAREERAT WIRIYAPONG NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index could fall below 1,000 points and the country's GDP growth to less than 1% if the Thai negotiation team, led by Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira, cannot convince the US to lower its reciprocal tariff from 36%, say analysts.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) said the worst-case scenario would be a 36% tariff on US imports of Thai shipments, which would cause Thai GDP growth to plunge to 0.9%, while the SET index could fall to 980 points.

In such a scenario, every major Southeast Asian nation would gain a competitive advantage over Thailand, noted BLS.

Based on current information, the Thai tariff rate would exceed that of Indonesia at 32%, Malaysia at 25% and Vietnam at 20%.