The Risk Report

VIKTOR ORBAN AND HIS FIDESZ party have led Hungary since 2010, long enough that they've become a kind of fact of European life. His trademark right-wing populism, his attacks on the E.U. and its liberal values, and his warnings that support for Ukraine risks conflict with Russia have become a familiar obstacle for efforts in Brussels to maintain E.U. unity.

- Ian Bremmer

Over time, Prime Minister Orban has come to dominate Hungary's official media and its courts, and he has built electoral advantages for himself and his party by gaming the country's voting system to win more parliamentary seats with fewer votes via gerrymandering and other gimmicks.

It's striking, then, that Fidesz now looks likely to lose Hungary's next national elections, scheduled for April 12. In part, that's because a growing number of voters are exhausted by their country's political and economic stagnation and are eager for a political spring cleaning. Peter Magyar, who defected from Fidesz two years ago amid accusations the party had helped hide evidence in a child-sexual-abuse scandal, is the youthful leader of a newish center-right opposition party called Tisza, which looks ready for a breakout electoral performance.