The Penalty Checkmate

India can possibly absorb the 25 per cent tariff; our economic growth will not be materially affected. All eyes are now on the 25 per cent penalty tariff

- Kanwal Sibal IS FORMER FOREIGN SECRETARY AND FORMER AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA

Trump has given body blows to India-US ties quite gratuitously. The growth in ties after the 2005 nuclear deal under three different presidents, whether Republican or Democratic, was based on a serious evaluation of the importance of these ties at both the bilateral and geopolitical levels.

In the process, the US became India's biggest trade and investment partner, defence ties expanded, export controls of advanced equipment and technologies were progressively eased for India, the Initiative for Critical and Emerging Technologies chaired by the National Security Advisers on both sides was launched. Space cooperation was given a boost.

The Quad was formed to deter Chinese expansionism in the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The Indo-Pacific concept emerged, which linked the security of the Pacific and the Indian Oceans. This led to the US renaming the Pacific Command as the Indo-Pacific Command.

All this showed that the basis of a long-term relationship based on shared interests and growing trust was being laid. The US began defining the strategic partnership with India as the defining relationship of the 21st century. Trump has, however, lost that focus.

During his first presidency, he and Narendra Modi forged a close personal rapport. The expectation was that despite Trump’s mercurial nature and his obsession with high Indian tariffs, we were optimistic about managing the relationship well enough during his second term. India made a remarkable start, with Trump receiving Modi at the White House in February, within a few weeks of his inauguration. The two sides were able to produce a very substantial joint statement that included all the key initiatives, especially on the technology side, launched under the Joe Biden presidency. It was agreed that the two sides will work on an interim deal on trade and will negotiate a multi-sectoral trade agreement by autumn to be signed when Trump comes to India for the Quad summit.