Trump's Numbers Game

As living costs are seen to rise, the president's approval rating is falling—mirroring backlash against Joe Biden

- JESUS MESA

PRICE TO PAY Trump is finding himself in a similar position to Biden last year, with voters appearing to blame him for a lack of affordability.

AS PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP TRIES TO reclaim the political narrative on inflation and affordability, polling shows voters are increasingly viewing him the way they once viewed his predecessor Joe Biden: as the person responsible for an economy that feels more expensive and harder to navigate than ever.

In the days following Democrats' sweeping victories in off-year elections, Trump attempted to reassure voters that he has inflation under control. He cited a Walmart promotion as evidence that Thanksgiving meals are now “25 percent cheaper” than under the Biden administration in 2024. “My costs are lower than the Democrats on everything, especially oil and gas!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

But that message appears to be falling flat. The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 50.3 in November—down nearly 30 percent from a year ago and just a fraction below its all-time low amid the 2008 financial crisis. According to The Economist/YouGov's tracking poll at time of going to press, 60.4 percent of independents now say the economy is “getting worse,” among the highest levels since the summer of 2022.

The sentiment shift is fueling a sharp drop in Trump's approval ratings. A Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll last month found that a majority of Americans say they're spending more on groceries and utilities than a year ago—and many are blaming the president.

Polling analyst Nate Silver, writing on his “Silver Bulletin” Substack, described Trump's trajectory as a “free fall,” noting on November 12 that his net approval rating had hovered around minus 13 since the start of the month. Despite the government shutdown winding down, “Donald Trump's heightened unpopularity might be here to stay,” he warned.