CASH IN ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC ADVANTAGE

IN 2023, INDIA WILL OVERTAKE CHINA TO BECOME THE MOST POPULOUS COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. THIS DEMOGRAPHIC TRAJECTORY COULD CHANGE INDIA’S GLOBAL STATUS AND WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL DYNAMICS WITHIN THE COUNTRY

- CHINMAY TUMBE

In 2023, as per United Nations demographic projections, India will overtake China to become the world’s most populous country. China crossed the one billion milestones in the early 1980s when India’s population was around 800 million. Since then, the one-child policy and rapid economic growth dramatically altered the demographic trajectory of China as birth rates crashed and its population began to stabilise around the 1.4 billion mark. In India, weaker family planning policy enforcement and slower economic growth sustained higher fertility rates, facilitating a rapid catch-up. By some estimates, China is set for a demographic implosion and will be replaced by fast-growing Nigeria as the second most populous country by the end of the 21st century. India, however, is all set to remain the most populous country for the rest of the century. How did India arrive at this milestone, at what level will its population peak, and what are the implications?