TRUMP'S POLICY PIVOT

Forging New Horizons in US-India Relations Amidst the China Tempest

- Dr. Ankita Roy

The 21st century has witnessed the United States and India forging a strengthened strategic partnership, underpinned by mutual democratic values, economic synergies, and a shared challenge posed by China. This trilateral dynamic—marked by competition, cooperation, and confrontation—has emerged as a focal point of Indo-Pacific geopolitics. As Donald Trump prepares to assume the presidency again in 2025, his potential policy trajectory promises both continuity and recalibration, offering a stark contrast to his first term and the multilateralist legacy of Joe Biden.

A Second Trump Term: Between Continuity and Change

Donald Trump’s first term was characterized by a transactional approach to foreign policy. His emphasis on bilateralism and economic pragmatism often translated into tangible gains, such as defence deals and the elevation of the US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership. Trump’s administration revived the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), signalling a robust commitment to countering China’s assertive posturing in the Indo-Pacific.

However, Trump’s preference for unilateralism often clashed with India’s strategic autonomy, leaving gaps in long-term institutional frameworks. His second term, therefore, might diverge significantly. Having laid a foundation in his fi rst term, Trump could pivot toward addressing systemic challenges, particularly in critical sectors like rare earth supply chains and advanced technology.

In contrast, the Biden administration pursued a more multilateralist and institutionalized approach. Biden’s focus on shared democratic values and climate cooperation not only deepened US-India ties but also addressed broader global concerns. Programs such as the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) and cooperation on semiconductor supply chains have established India as a crucial partner in reducing reliance on China.