FOUR SCENARIOS FOR A WORLD IN DISORDER

The world is a scary place right now, requiring cool heads and an understanding of the underlying dynamics

- DAVID BACH

CHINESE LEADER Xi Jinping's recent speech to the Communist Party Congress could be one of the most consequential of the decade. He told the audience (and the world) that his economic growth-crushing zero-COVID policy is here to stay, and that Beijing is more determined than ever to reunify with Taiwan-peacefully if possible, and by force if necessary.

We are living in a moment of deep geopolitical rifts and extraordinary economic uncertainty, epitomised by Xi's pronouncements. The world is clearly not reverting to some pre-COVID status quo. Instead, a combination of underlying forces has upended the previous world order and ushered in a period of profound disorder.

Any list of destabilising necessarily incomplete. global forces is In this article I'm not considering climate change or biodiversity loss, a possible COVID resurgence, the impact of artificial intelligence and other disruptive technologies, or the role of rogue regimes from Iran to North Korea. Instead, I'm focusing on the four areas that I believe will have the greatest impact on global business over the next several years-particularly because of their expected interaction.

Russia's war in Ukraine

Not only did Russian troops fail to subdue Kyiv quickly as both the Kremlin and many Western observers had assumed, Russia looks increasingly likely to lose the war-the mobilisation of reservists and nuclear sabre-rattling notwithstanding.

There are three reasons for this. First, the extraordinary poise and courage of the Ukrainian people, armed forces, and leaders. Second, utter chaos on the Russian side. And third, the remarkable unity across the west that has provided Ukraine's troops with sophisticated weapons, training and intelligence while slowly crippling Russia's economy via boycotts and sanctions.