Grain supplies are abundant around the world

AGRIBUSINESS PERSPECTIVE

- Wandile Sihlobo

You may have noticed the news headlines earlier this year about global food prices rising. These headlines weren't necessarily about retail food prices, but the mild uptick in the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' Global Food Price Index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of agricultural commodities.

The index lifted by 1% in April 2025 from the previous month to 128 points. This is up 8% from the same period last year, but still 20% down from its peak in March 2022, a month after Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to a surge in grain and oilseed prices.

The mild uptick in the prices of grains, dairy, and meat has underpinned the index's mild increase in recent months. In the case of dairy and meat prices, there is a rise in demand, particularly in the EU, combined with tight supplies in some regions that have struggled with animal diseases. These will likely be temporary and generally mild as the supplies recover in the coming months.

BLACK SEA REGION

In the case of grains, the price increases reflect tighter supplies in the Black Sea region. But this, too, may be short-lived as the general production outlook is optimistic.