Solar Future In Bangladesh Balancing Cost Competitiveness And Demand Realities

Introduction - On the verge of a climate change disaster, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have become a major global concern, particularly energy-related emissions, which account for about 75% of total GHGs.

- Md. Mizanur Rahman

Consequently, many countries are reshaping their energy portfolios to achieve net-zero targets. Bangladesh is no exception and is making significant efforts to introduce emission-free technologies into its energy mix.

The Energy Balances of Bangladesh reveal that the electricity sector consumes more than 55% of Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES), and this share continues to rise (Fig. 1). Therefore, introducing emission-free primary energy sources for power generation is critical to building a low-carbon society. Renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, can play a pivotal role in this transition.

However, developing utility-scale solar projects in Bangladesh faces several barriers, primarily the lack of non-agricultural land. In addition, the absence of local manufacturing facilities for quality panels and battery storage systems increases dependence on imports, requiring substantial foreign currency outflows.

These challenges have kept the cost of solar electricity production relatively high compared to other countries, although costs are steadily declining. Keeping renewable energy affordable will be crucial for maintaining competitiveness and phasing out fossil fuels in the future.

This study examines the characteristics of solar power, the daily electricity demand curve, and electricity generation costs from both conventional and renewable sources to determine an optimal solar capacity target for meeting Bangladesh’s future power demand.

Daily Demand Curve Analysis

Electricity demand varies widely depending on lifestyle patterns, weather conditions, seasonal changes, and festivals. To meet this fluctuating demand, electricity must be generated instantaneously and delivered through the transmission and distribution network within fractions of a second.