ROLL BACK POPULATION CONTROL

India's TFR has crashed below replacement rates. It is time to roll back population control policies. This should be done even in Bihar and UP, as they are now single-handedly supporting the national average

- SANJEEV SANYAL & SAYANDEB BANERJEE

INDIA HAS THE largest population in the world today, at 1.46 billion people, and around a billion in working age of 15 to 64 years. India overtook China on both counts recently. While India’s population is still growing due to improved longevity, it is important to note that the number of births peaked a quarter of a century ago, at 29 million in 2001, and is estimated to be about 23 million for 2024.

The single most important factor driving demographics is a country’s total fertility rate (TFR), defined as the number of live births per female of reproductive age. Contrary to popular belief, India’s TFR has crashed below replacement rates, i.e., the level at which a population replaces itself. The globally accepted replacement rate is 2.1, but this number is true for developed economies where infant mortality rates are low and the sex ratio at birth has been stable. As per the World Health Organization (WHO), infant mortality rates (deaths in the first year after birth) in India stand at 24.5 deaths per 1,000 live births (2023) despite large declines, while it is less than 5.5 in developed countries. Moreover, India also witnessed decades when the sex ratio at birth was skewed towards males. This has improved now, but it has had the long-term effect of a reduced pipeline of women of reproductive age. Thus, India’s required replacement rate is higher at around 2.25 in our view. The gap between India’s TFR and the replacement rate, therefore, is worse than what appears at first glance.