BAYESIAN MAIB INTERIM REPORT: 'Knocked down in 15 seconds'

The first official account of the sinking of the Bayesian superyacht, an interim report by the UK-based Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB), was released on 15 May. The report is a harrowing read, recording the events of the fatal incident.

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MAIB investigators pieced together the sequence of events, the movements of the 10 crew and 12 guests, and the rapid timeline of the sudden tragedy, which resulted in seven deaths off Sicily, including that of the Bayesian’s owner Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter, Hannah, and the yacht's chef.

On 18 August 2024, Bayesian motored to Porticello, on the northern coast of Sicily, to anchor for the night - both for shelter from the forecast weather and to easily disembark guests the following day.

The report notes that Bayesian anchored with its centreboard - or swing keel - in the raised position. Another yacht, the Sir Robert Baden Powell was also at anchor nearby.

SUDDEN STORM

That evening the seas were calm and there was a very light wind from the north-west. Thunderstorms had been forecast, and the skipper left instructions to be woken if the wind speed increased above 20 knots or if there were signs that Bayesian was dragging anchor.

At 0300, the deckhand on watch noted that although the wind was still eight knots, the thunderclouds and lightning seemed to be getting closer. At around 0355, they took a video of the advancing storm and posted it on social media, and went on deck to close hatches to keep out the rain.

The wind suddenly picked up to 30 knots, hitting Bayesian broad on the port bow, which began listing to starboard. The MAIB investigation confirms that, at around 0357, both Bayesian and Sir Robert Baden Powell started dragging their anchors.