Understanding An Unusual Cyclone

Cyclone Ockhi intensified from a deep depression to a cyclonic storm in less than six hours, baffling scientists about its fast evolution.

- S​​​hreeshan Venkatesh

ON JANUARY 18, Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced that search and rescue operations for fisherfolk in the aftermath of Cyclone Ockhi that struck southern India had been called off. “Since there was no result for seven to eight days, the search operation was called off on December 27,” she told reporters. Between November 30 and December 4 last year, powerful winds and heavy rains brought on by the cyclone had left 93 people dead and damaged over 10,000 homes. The defence minister’s statement came around 50 days after the powerful cyclone left a trail of destruction across south India. At the time of the withdrawal of operations, over 660 fisherfolk from Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep were reported missing.

The magnitude of destruction places Ockhi among the worst cyclones to have struck the Indian coastline in the last 50 years. Immediately after the cyclone, questions were raised about the delay in forecasts issued by the government and the lack of preparedness to deal with the cyclone. The first intimation about the possible formation of a depression from the India Meteorological Department (imd) came on November 28 in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued at noon that day. By November 30, rather than a depression, a cyclonic storm was ravaging the southern tips of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Ironically, in recent years, imd has been successful in warning about the possible development of depressions into impending cyclones five to six days in advance, which helped in limiting damage and casualties. Certainly, this was the case with cyclones Phailin in 2013, Hudhud in 2014 or Vardah in 2016. So why was Ockhi different?

Unusual path