The Numbers Behind Climate Change

The planet can barely afford any more carbon emissions. But we need to continue to emit for our survival and development. What is the carbon budget available to us? More importantly, who should be allowed to emit and how much? An analysis by Sunita Narain and Avantika Goswami

- Sunita Narain and Avantika Goswami

DEATH RACE

Our annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have grown about 70 times since the pre-industrial era, reaching nearly 36.4 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2019. Unless we bring them down to 18.22 Gt by 2030, we are headed for catastrophic climate events

CLIMATE CHANGE is real. We now know that for certain. We are already experiencing doomsday scenarios that climate scientists had projected for the distant future. The UN's top climate science body, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its latest Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, only confirms what we already know and see in the world around us: wildfires triggered by extreme heat and moisture loss; devastating floods caused by extreme rain events; and tropical cyclones powered by the changing temperatures between the sea and land surface. The report also clearly says that human activities, for certain, are to be blamed for these climate events. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGS) have warmed the planet beyond its tolerance level. In May this year, the atmospheric CO 2 level reached 419 parts per million (ppm), as measured by the US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory in Hawaii. This is nearly 45 per cent above IPCC's accepted pre-industrial baseline of 278 ppm in 1750.