A framework to analyse the Russia-Ukraine war

Objectives are mainly strategic and military, while the costs are economic and strategic, indicating that the invasion may not be defeated militarily.

- VIVEK JOSHI

The Russia-Ukraine war is in its second 1 month, the world is watching with horror and consternation at the bellicosity of the participants and with hopes that peace talks are not more information warfare. Several sources have been pronouncing victory or defeat for Russia and censorship of various forms complicates the understanding. This article presents a simple framework for readers to draw their own conclusions for such conflicts, and not be guided by conclusions presented here or elsewhere.

The effective use of a framework requires common understanding of some basic issues, concepts, context and background. The unit of analysis is a war with clearly identified actors. "Demilitarization" means precluding from the territory of a country capabilities which can potentially threaten another, it does not mean giving up a military completely. Germany and Japan, for example, built powerful defensive forces after World War II. Cities are not military objectives, they are strategic, political or economic prizes.