Tracking Election Trends

An analysis of election results prior to 1971 indicates that issues determined their outcome, irrespective of whether polls were held simultaneously or separately. But the 1951-71 political situation was entirely different from the present

- Snigdhendu Bhattacharya

A STUDY of outcomes of elections from 1951 and 1971— when parliamentary and assembly polls used to be held together generally, and separately only exceptionally—reveals that results were determined more by state-specific and national political issues and alignments of parties. Whether polls were held simultaneously or separately was not a deciding factor.

The Congress party—the political force which enjoyed an overwhelming dominance all over India during this period— used to record a higher vote share in the Lok Sabha elections when compared to the simultaneously-held assembly elections in most states, even in its strongholds. This happened mostly because independent candidates used to get a higher share of votes in assembly elections.

On the other hand, the national opposition parties or regional forces did not necessarily benefit from separate elections, when state elections were held mid-term due to the reorganisation and creation of new states or because of the government losing the majority. There have been instances when, in the case of simultaneous elections, the Congress’ assembly vote share was about 5 percentage points lower than its Lok Sabha share. In some cases, their assembly vote share saw an increase in separately held elections.

However, it wouldn’t possibly be right to draw conclusions about the present political scenario based on the 1951-71 electoral trends for two reasons. First, the Congress was the main force not only nationally but in every state of the country. The current ruling party at the Centre is still trying to make inroads in many parts of the country where its electoral presence remains insignificant.