What's In Store For Global Trade In 2017?

The year gone by was eventful, both for the world and India. While the much-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) was passed by the Indian Parliament, United Kingdom voted to exit the European Union. While Donald Trump took the world by surprise, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's sudden announcement of demonetisation left the whole country in a financial shock. The global commodity market too woke up from a slumber, though there is more recovery that can be made. While these and many other such events shook the world in 2016, their impact on global trade and policy environments will only likely be seen in 2017. Will 2017 be a year of change for the better? The Dollar Business takes a look at key elements and occurrences that could change world trade in 2017.

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Two events that shook the world in 2016 were Britain voting to exit the European Union and Donald Trump’s surprise (shocking?) win in the US presidential elections.

When it comes to India, the two major government decisions that created a stir in 2016 were the passage of the GST Bill and the demonetisation initiative of the government. We did predict, in January 2016 issue of The Dollar Business, that the GST Bill was likely to go through in 2016 and we have been proven right on that. Demonetisation though took us by surprise, just as it did the entire nation. We had also predicted that crude prices will be in the range of $40 to $60 and crude stayed within that range for the most part of 2016.

It was certainly a year of more hits than misses in terms of forecasts for us. And following tradition, this year again, we analyse the events of the past to come up with educated forecasts as to how 2017 will look for India and the world, in terms of trade and economy. Our take in general: 2017 will spring surprises too! 

TRUMP IMPACT

Love him or hate him, the world will now have to contend with President Donald Trump. His campaign rhetoric against China was something that many thought was just that, rhetoric. But his recent overtures towards Taiwan and his consistent remarks against China may mean that he will follow through on at the very least some of his campaign promises. He has already announced that US is walking away from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), expressed a desire to work on a preferential trade agreement with UK, talked about imposing punitive taxes on US companies who outsource jobs abroad and has expressed a desire to revisit NAFTA.