The New G3: US, China And India

A G3 triangle of power comprising the US, China and India in the second quartile of this century (i.e., after 2025) will have conflicting national interests though India and the US clearly have more in common: democracy, language and laws

- Minhaz Merchant

A TRIANGLE OF powerful nations has historically fashioned the warp and weft of geopolitics. In the late nineteenth century, the three great powers were imperial Britain, the United States, and a rising Germany. In the mid-twentieth century, the US, Britain and the Soviet Union formed the dominant troika.

As the twenty-first century enters its second quartile, the three most important nations will be the US, China, and India. Global power is a combination of hard and soft power. Despite India’s slowing economic growth, its momentum makes it inevitable that it will emerge as the third largest economy in the world by 2030 with an estimated nominal GDP of $8 trillion. This assumes an average annual growth rate of seven percent and an inflation rate of three percent. On this basis, nominal GDP will double from $2.9 trillion in 2019 to around $6 trillion in 2026 and further to $8 trillion in 2030.

Poverty will decline gradually, the fall picking up speed after 2025. By 2030, Indians living below the poverty line as defined by the World Bank could fall to below 10 percent of the population – which will begin to plateau at around 1.5 billion.

The nominal GDPs of the world’s three largest economies in 2030 is estimated to be: the US $30 trillion; China $25 trillion; India $8 trillion. China will thus narrow its GDP gap with the US. The gap between China and India too will narrow from nearly 5:1 today to 3:1.