Not Just A Pipe Dream

The farmer could only get richer, say statistics, even as the debate on doubling farmers’ incomes reaches a crescendo 

- Prabodh Krishna

PRIME MINISTER Narendra Modi was addressing a kissan rally (congregation of farmers) in UP ’s Bareilly on 28 February, 2016, when he declared that his dream was to see the income of farmers double by 2022 — when independent India turns 75. The Prime Minister was obviously speaking of doubling the income of the farmer from what it was in the agricultural year 2015-16 seven years hence in the agricultural year 2022-23. If he indeed was, then he was budgeting for a 10.4 per cent growth in agriculture every year.

Economists across the political and dogmatic spectrum have since pontificated and debated on the practicality of the Prime Minister’s dream, especially after the Economic Survey for 2017-18 predicted a 2.1 per cent growth in farm output. In the penultimate year of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government’s tenure, doubling the farmer’s income is no longer a wish. It has assumed the proportions of a policy.

“Yes there are many new and impressive initiatives by the NDA but the agriculture GDP is still not providing the desired results,” says Siraj Hussain, former Secretary, in the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare. Hussain’s scepticism is shared by others too. “Many experts do not believe the vision of doubling farmers’ income as practical,” writes Niti Aayog member Ramesh Chand, in his 2017 paper titled, Doubling Farmers’ Income: Rationale, Strategy, Prospects and Action Plan.