Contingency plans must back up electricity scenarios

As electricity demand is forecast to surge, Vietnam is stepping up efforts to secure power supply while fast-tracking rooftop solar development.

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Trinh Quoc Vu, deputy director general of the Electricity Authority under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), told VIR's Nha Phuong how new policies are expected to help accelerate rooftop solar adoption.How do you forecast electricity demand and what are the key issues for power supply in the current context?

At the end of 2025, the MoIT directed the Electricity System and Market Operation Company, together with Vietnam Electricity, to coordinate in developing the national power system operation plan. On that basis, the MoIT approved the operation plan for the national power system. This decision sets the objective of ensuring electricity supply under all circumstances.

Accordingly, the power supply plan for 2026 has been developed based on three scenarios. Firstly, the base scenario, in which total system demand is expected to increase by 8.5 per cent compared to 2025. Secondly, the operational scenario, under which electricity demand could rise by as much as 11.7 per cent on-year. Thirdly, the contingency scenario. In this case, during peak dry-season months, demand may surge to as high as 14.1 per cent, a very significant level.

According to our statistics, in the first four months of 2026, electricity demand increased by approximately 6.6 per cent. Forecasts from power corporations also indicate that demand growth in the first half of the year could reach around 8.5 per cent, closely tracking the base scenario.