Companies must act quickly when facing disruption

Two months into the Hormuz crisis, 87 per cent of Vietnam-based supply chain professionals report disruption and only 13 per cent feel confidently prepared.

- By Julien Brun Managing partner, CEL

The macro buffer has held; the corporate response is what matters now.There is a recognisable pattern in how supply chains respond to geopolitical shocks. The event occurs, costs rise, and companies stockpile, renegotiate, and wait. When pressure eases, operations return to prior defaults. The structural vulnerabilities remain untouched, while the next shock finds the same gaps.

After military strikes on Iran disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 25 per cent of seaborne oil normally flows, early evidence suggests that pattern is repeating in Vietnam. CEL's pulse survey of 105 Vietnam-based supply chain professionals (March 30 to April 10) found 87 per cent reporting disruption, but only 13 per cent describing it as significant.

The more telling number is that 67 per cent described their readiness as “neutral”, uncertain whether they are managing well. More than half expect disruption to last six months or longer.

Vietnam’s policy machinery has moved quickly. The fuel price stabilisation fund was tapped at VND4,000-5,000 (15-19 US cents) per litre on March 11, capping the RON95 hike at 7.66 per cent against a projected 22.45 per cent. Most favoured nation fuel import tariffs were cut to zero through April 30. The April 4 government briefing confirmed domestic fuel supply is secured only through end-April, prompting prime minister-level outreach to the UAE, Qatar, and Algeria.