Why India should be scared of ‘nuclear sharing’

As deterrence weakens around the world, in a new age of proliferation, there are difficult questions appearing for India and its nuclear umbrella.

- HINDOL SENGUPTA

lhe global crisis of “nuclear sharing” and the weakening of nuclear deterrence draws from the erosion of longstanding arms control treaties, heightened strategic mistrust among major powers, and the proliferation of both state and non-state nuclear ambitions. In South Asia, recent convergences among China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have intensified regional calculations, raising concerns over Bangladesh's strategic trajectory, especially amid the political rise of Islamists.

CRISIS OF NUCLEAR SHARING AND WEAKENED DETERRENCE

Nuclear sharing—whereby nuclear states extend deterrence through the forward deployment or potential transfer of nuclear weapons to nonnuclear allies—has come under increasing scrutiny. This practice blurs the line between nuclear weapon states (NWS) and nonnuclear weapon states (NNWS) as enshrined in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), leading to growing discontent among both NATO allies and external actors.

Nuclear sharing is a concept in deterrence theory where a nuclear-armed state deploys its nuclear weapons on the territory of a nonnuclear-weapon state, extending its nuclear deterrent to that host country. Critically, it involves joint planning, training, and maintaining delivery systems (suchas dual-capable aircraft) for the potential use of these weapons.

The most prominent example is the NATO nuclear sharing arrangement, where the United States maintains nuclear gravity bombs in several European member states (including Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Tiirkiye). More recently, Russia has begun deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.