OP SINDOOR DEEPENS DOUBTS ABOUT PAK'S SUBMARINE CAPABILITIES

Only two of Pakistan’s five Agosta-class submarines remain operational, with the remaining three docked for extended maintenance.

- ASHISH SINGH

Operation Sindoor, India's landmark military operation of 2025, exposed critical vulnerabilities beneath the surface-Pakistan's submarine fleet now stands compromised, jeopardising its strategic maritime deterrence. Recent satellite imagery, expert analyses, and emerging regional dynamics have only intensified concerns about Islamabad's undersea capabilities, creating a credibility crisis for the Pakistan Navy.

FLEET ON THE BRINK

Satellite imagery from March 2025 paints an interesting picture: only two of Pakistan's five Agosta-class submarines (one Agosta-70 and one Agosta-90B) remain operational, with the remaining three docked for extended maintenance at Karachi Shipyard. Critical repairs, including the overhaul of MESMA AIP systems and structural upgrades assisted by Turkey, face repeated delays due to supply-chain disruptions.

Alarmingly, one Agosta90B submarine was observed stranded ashore, signalling severe readiness deficits.

Meanwhile, the next-generation Hangor-class submarines, which are crucial for modernising Pakistan's fleet, also face uncertainty.

Construction on the first two units-PNS Hangor and Shushuk-continues in China, with delivery timelines slipping to late 2025 and 2026, respectively. The local assembly of subsequent units at Karachi Shipyard faces budgetary and liquidity constraints, significantly impacting the timely induction. The slow construction pace of the fifth and sixth Hangor-class submarines at Karachi, initiated in late 2024, highlights these fiscal strains, threatening to extend capability gaps until at least the early 2030s.

NUCLEAR DETERRENCE & SECOND-STRIKE CREDIBILITY