MINORITY HEAVY SEATS MAY SPOIL BJP'S POLL PLANS IN BENGAL

Demographic map does not offer enough Hindu-majority seats for BJP to form government without breakthroughs in areas where TMC has Muslim support.

- ABHINANDAN MISHRA

With the West Bengal Assembly election just five months away, the BJP will enter the contest with a significant structural disadvantage rooted in the state's demographic map.

Nearly 160 of the state's 294 Assembly seats fall in districts where Muslims constitute more than 25% of the population; areas where the BJP has historically struggled and where the Trinamool Congress remains dominant.

An analysis of Census 2011 district-level data shows that nine of West Bengal's 23 districts have a Muslim population share exceeding 25%, highlighting a clear demographic concentration across parts of central, northern and border Bengal.

The districts crossing the 25% threshold are Murshidabad, Malda, Uttar Dinajpur, North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, Birbhum, Nadia, Howrah and Cooch Behar.

According to the 2011 Census, the Muslim population share in these nine districts stands at: Murshidabad (66.27%), Malda (51.27%), Uttar Dinajpur (49.92%), South 24 Parganas (35.57%), Birbhum (37.06%), Cooch Behar (around 25.5-26.5%), Nadia (26.76%), Howrah (26.20%) and North 24 Parganas (25.82%). These figures underline both the magnitude and the geographical clustering of Muslim-populated districts in the state.

As per officials, these numbers are expected to have increased significantly in the past one decade, the clarity on which will emerge after the findings of the 2027 census are made public.

Statewide, West Bengal had approximately 2.46 crore Muslims in 2011, a total of 27% of its population, making it the Indian state with the second-largest Muslim population after Uttar Pradesh. This sizable statewide presence provides the demographic backdrop against which the political behaviour of Muslim-concentrated districts acquires its electoral significance.