'CEASEFIRE IN GAZA POSSIBLE ONLY AFTER TERROR CEASES'

The elimination of the Hamas terror factory in Gaza would liberate the people living there so that they can have a future much better than the past has been since Hamas seized control in 2007.

- MADHAV NALAPAT

Analysts having an inside track on developments on 7 October and afterwards say that backers of Hamas were assured of covert support in the operation by a country that may be labelled a "Superpower Sponsor". Asymmetric warfare specialists from that country met with  "cutouts" (i.e. intermediaries) in two cities in West Asia since July to present and refine a plan. They claimed that this would supercharge the effort by multiple groups to weaken the morale and fighting spirit of Israel. The objective was to ensure a reverse migration of members of the Jewish community from Israel to countries across both sides of the Atlantic, including topflight technical talent in a country that may be small in size but is significant in terms of technological achievements.

Studying the empirical data on past hostage situations, the calculation of the planners was that about 175 hostages would ensure that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would be "on the defensive" in the inevitable battle that would follow. Hamas spokespersons have publicly declared (including in a television channel located in an ally of the "Superpower Sponsor") that Hamas members in the custody of countries that some of the captured hostages belonged to could be released as part of a prisoner swap agreement. They expected that this would be reached "within six weeks" in a situation where (in their calculations) the IDF held back on its firepower and a strategy involving incursions into Gaza for fear of accidentally killing some of the hostages.