Whose Side Is The US On? Doubts Strain Alliances

Military solidarity and trade wars don't mix.

- Max Hastings

Winston Churchill told a story of an 1895 encounter, as a young cavalry officer, with the statesman William Harcourt. After some discussion of great issues, Churchill asked eagerly: "What will happen then?" Harcourt replied, with Victorian complacency: "My dear Winston, the experiences of a long life have convinced me that nothing ever happens."

Few people 130 years later could succumb to any similar delusion in a world that seems to have consigned itself to perpetual turmoil. Most recently, Poland has frightened European capitals by electing a right-wing, anti-European Union president. The British government published a long-awaited strategic defence review, which proposes rearmament to bring about "war-fighting readiness", according to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, as Ukraine launched stunning drone strikes against five bomber bases deep inside Russia.

There is more. At a conference in Singapore last weekend, France's President warned of dire consequences for democracies if Russia prevails in Ukraine. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth urged Asian nations to stand up tall against Chinese aggression, as Australia's Defence Minister challenged China to justify its huge military and naval build-up. His Philippines counterpart said China has been "absolutely irresponsible and reckless in appropriating most, if not all, of the South China Sea, and the world cannot tolerate this".

These various words were uttered, those events took place many thousands of miles apart. But the common strand is fear that the threat of major conflict among nations is growing, that the international rules-based order has collapsed.