Trump blinked in trade war with China; can South-east Asia get a break, too?

Few takeaways for region amid number of uncertainties over US-China tariffs deal

- Shannon Teoh

WASHINGTON/SINGAPORE/KUALA LUMPUR/BANGKOK/MANILA - It took one weekend in Geneva for US President Donald Trump to roll back what has been seen till now as the raison d'être of his presidency.

From May 14, gone are the 145 per cent tariffs on goods from China down to 30 per cent, composed of 10 per cent baseline tariffs plus 20 per cent punitive levies aimed at curbing the inflow of precursors to make the synthetic opioid fentanyl, which is causing tens of thousands of deaths in the US.

Apart from these, some sector-specific tariffs remain.

The reversal on China invites the obvious question: What about the rest of the world, especially South-east Asia, where reciprocal tariffs range from 49 per cent on Cambodia to 17 per cent on the Philippines to 10 per cent on free trade agreement (FTA) partner Singapore?

A rare joint US-China statement on May 12, issued after two days of talks in Geneva, announced a dramatic lowering of tariffs while the US seeks "a long-lasting and durable trade deal" with China, to quote US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Also on May 14, Beijing will slash levies on American products from 125 per cent to 10 per cent.

The US decision to lower tariffs was largely seen as a victory for China. Many analysts said Mr Trump had blinked.

Dr Ian Bremmer, founder of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, described it as Mr Trump's "biggest climbdown to date". Others said China had stared down Mr Trump's tariffs and called his bluff.

The Americans suddenly do not want to decouple any more, Dr Bremmer said. "Recognising they can't trade at all with the present 145 per cent tariffs, they reached

The Chinese had shown no signs of picking up the phone, he noted.