Middle East war looms as Iran waits, keen to avoid past mistakes

Iranians have kept Israel guessing because they wish to maximise element of surprise

- Jonathan Eyal

Psychological warfare is now the weapon of choice for all the actors in the Middle East.

Iran and its regional allies continue to warn that they will strike at Israel in retaliation for Israel's assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Hamas militant organisation, as well as the killing of top commanders in Hezbollah, Iran's proxy militia.

The Americans, in turn, are vowing to deter what US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin refers to as "Iran's potential aggression" and are speeding up additional military deployments in the region, which now include a second aircraft carrier and more submarines.

Meanwhile, Israel remains on high alert, claiming to be "ready for anything". The consensus in the region is that this ominous lull won't last much longer and that an Iranian-led strike on Israel will come soon.

But the main question preoccupying Western intelligence agencies and strategic analysts is why Iran appears to have been so hesitant over the two weeks that have passed since Haniyeh's assassination.

All the indications are that the critical explanation resides in Iran's complicated domestic calculations and politics.

For decades, Iran's confrontation with Israel was conducted through proxies, which, over time, grew into considerable regional strategic actors in their own right.

Hezbollah, for instance, is not only the most powerful force in Lebanon but also one of the most potent military organisations in the Middle East, outranking most of the national armies in the region.

And, while the Houthis in Yemen and the various Shi'ite militias in Iran and Syria are smaller, they have successfully confronted both Israel and the US.