Grim outlook for Ukraine whoever wins the US presidential election

Trump's hostility is well known. Harris is Ukraine-friendly but the extent of support is uncertain.

- Jonathan Eyal

Nobody has more at stake in the United States presidential election than Ukraine, whose very existence as an independent nation may ultimately depend on how Americans vote in less than a week.

The war in Ukraine - Europe's most significant and bloodiest conflict since World War II - remains one of the most divisive topics of the Nov 5 US elections, with former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, and Vice-President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, adopting very different views.

Most media commentators and political analysts argue that the distinction between the two is between continuity and unpredictability. If elected - their argument goes - Ms Harris is likely to continue President Joe Biden's policies of supplying weapons and cash to the Ukrainians as they fight off their Russian invaders. But if Trump returns to power, he can do anything, including simply abandoning Ukraine.

Yet this narrative is both too binary and too simplistic. The reality remains that both US presidential candidates are unpredictable when it comes to Ukraine, albeit in different ways.

Ukraine and the rest of Europe may well face one of their most consequential yet unpredictable strategic outcomes in decades.

TRUMP'S '24 HOURS' PLEDGE

"The Donald" is famously dismissive of the argument that principles or international obligations should govern his country's foreign and security policies.

So, the fact that Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine violates the most basic principles of international law is of no concern to him; Trump views the war as just a tussle over some bit of worthless real estate and has frequently expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, a man he regards as "strong" and "savvy".