China hawks losing influence in Trumpworld, despite trade war

'Restrainers' are taking over from 'primacists'

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Even before US President Donald Trump's tariff turmoil, it was hard to discern a clear China strategy. With decisions depending largely on presidential whim, his foreign policy advisers seemed to have split into warring tribes. To use a shorthand common in Washington, the "primacists" seek to re-establish America's dominance in the world, taking on all threats; the "prioritisers" think America can handle only China and should abandon Ukraine; and the "restrainers" want to focus on only the homeland, avoiding future wars.

Since April 2, Mr Trump's trade war has sown further confusion. But whatever his own views, one thing seems increasingly clear: conventional China hawks, whether primacists or prioritisers, are losing ground in the battle for influence.

Though overshadowed by the trade drama, among the strongest indications of this trend was the firing or reassignment of six National Security Council (NSC) officials, which became public on April 3. That was apparently prompted by Laura Loomer, a right-wing conspiracy theorist who met Mr Trump a day earlier. Ms Loomer said the officials were "disloyal people" who helped to sabotage Mr Trump. Yet her demands seem to align closely with those of the restrainers (including Donald Trump Jr) who want to root out "neocons" bent on provoking war with China.

One of those sacked was David Feith, the NSC's senior director for technology. He was in some ways a symbolic target. His father, Douglas, was one of the original neocons. As a Pentagon official, he helped to plan the invasion of Iraq in 2003. But the younger Mr Feith was also among the White House's most experienced China specialists, having worked in the State Department through Mr Trump's first term and helped to create his Indo-Pacific Strategy, which advocated upgrading American alliances. As a think-tanker after that, he argued for tougher China policies.